All week, I told you to start guys like DeAngelo Williams, Bruce Gradkowski, and Dustin Keller. And boy did all three produce well. Unfortunately, none of them were top-line picks.
While predicting Peyton Hillis and Vernon Davis to have strong days proved accurate, I whiffed on Carson Palmer and Matt Ryan. Had I flipped them, I would have been in good shape!
Such is the frustration of try to predict the unpredictable. But I love the challenge. So let’s quickly review my Week 4 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks and then move on to Week 5.
- Start ‘em hits: Peyton Hillis, Vernon Davis
- Start ‘em misses: Matt Ryan, Cincinnati D, Santana Moss
- Sit ‘em hits: Jahvid Best, Todd Heap
- Sit ‘em misses: Carson Palmer, Derrick Mason & TJ Houshmandzadeh
Still to play: Miami Dolphins
Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em
- Note that the following teams have byes in Week 5: Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks
- Click to see our complete Week 5 rankings.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘em QB: Eli Manning, New York Giants (at Houston)
Is it really as easy as just picking whichever QB is playing against the Houston Texans? Why yes, it certainly appears that it is.
The Texans were by the far the worst defense against the pass coming into Week 4, and so far as I write this on Sunday afternoon, Bruce Gradkowski – Bruce Gradkowski! - is 10-14 for 119 yards and a TD, and he hasn’t even completed a pass to Louis Murphy yet. (Note: Gradkowski finished with 278 yards and 2 TDs.)
Even without seeing what Eli does against Chicago tonight, I’ll gladly pencil him into the start ‘em spot. (Update: Eli threw for close to 200 yards but no TDs.) He’s thrown too many INTs and really made some bone-headed decisions, but he’s a good QB with a good receiver corps and the matchup is too delicious to ignore.
Eli Manning fantasy football Week 5 projection: 315 yards passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Other start ‘em QBs for Week 5:
- Friends, you know I don’t like recommending rookies. However, I love Sam Bradford, and I especially love him this week. Bradford now has two 2-TD performances in his first four games as a starter, and that’s without a legitimate #1 receiver. In Week 5 he gets the Lions’ secondary, which just isn’t very good.
- Tony Romo‘s last time out was very productive, though it was against the Texans. In Week 5 he gets a Titans secondary that had been pretty good the first two weeks but that gave up 300+ yards and two TDs to Kyle Orton in Week 5. I like Romo for about the same.
- What else can be said about Mark Sanchez? He has put his awful Week 1 performance behind him and become one of the most productive QBs in fantasy with 8 TDs and no INTs over the last three weeks. I don’t expect him to continue at this pace, but the Jets face a very good Minnesota run D that will force them to pass. That doesn’t seem so scary for Jets fans anymore.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Sit ‘em QB: Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals (vs Tampa Bay)
I guess you could say I’m stubborn.
I picked Palmer as my sit ‘em QB last week, then he promptly went out and torched the Cleveland pass D. In hindsight, after seeing what Baltimore’s then-crappy pass attack did to Cleveland in Week 3, I probably should not have been so bold in my assessment of their ability to rebound and limit Palmer.
However, I do think the Buccaneers can limit Palmer and the Bengals.
Not only is Tampa Bay coming off of a bye, but they are playing very good pass D this year. Through three games, the Bucs are giving up less than 200 yards per game and have picked off 6 passes against only 5 TDs; and two of those TDs were by Pittsburgh on plays that easily could have been incompletions with the coverage Tampa Bay had.
But this pick is more about my lack of faith in Palmer. He has been trending downward for years and I simply don’t have faith in him as a consistent top-12 starter. I don’t think Palmer will be terrible, but if you’re thinking of starting him I challenge you to see if someone like Sam Bradford or Mark Sanchez is available. I’d start either over Palmer this week.
Carson Palmer fantasy football Week 5 projection: 215 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 5:
- Brett Favre. He’s at the Jets and Sidney Rice still isn’t there. Plus, Revis might be back. I don’t like it, even though the Jets have given up more passing yards this year that we would have expected.
- I’m not particularly high on Jay Cutler. He’s not an awful play, but Carolina’s D has played much better over the past two weeks. If they held Drew Brees in check, which they did, that doesn’t make me very confident in putting Cutler in there against them.
- I know I usually have three extra QB it ‘ems, but no one really stands out. Anyone else I put would be rather obvious, so just pose any specific questions in the comment section.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘em RB: Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, Kansas City (at Indianapolis)
Coming into Week 4, the Colts were 28th in the NFL against the rush (141.3 yards per game) and they had given up 3 TDs (though, granted, all came in Week 1 against the Texans). As I write this it’s halftime of the Colts game against the Jags, and Jacksonville has 124 rushing yards and two rushing TDs. (Note: they finished with 174 yards on the ground.) Remember that neither the Giants nor the Broncos run the ball especially well, so Indy’s seeming improvement against the run was more of a mirage than a trend.
Kansas City, however, is a very good running team and I think both of their backs have value this week. Jamaal Charles is a big play threat and the Colts give up big plays on the ground. Thomas Jones is the one who gets the most carries, and the old man will be rested after the bye week. With Matt Cassel still struggling and the Colts very good against the pass, Todd Haley will undoubtedly want to ride his backs in this one. Take advantage.
Jamaal Charles fantasy football Week 5 projection: 75 yards rushing, 35 yards receiving, 1 TD
Thomas Jones fantasy football Week 5 projection: 70 yards rushing, 25 yards receiving, 1 TD
Other start ‘em RBs for Week 5:
- See what I mean about DeAngelo Williams? Just be patient people. He finally scored in Week 4 and I like him to have another solid day against the Bears, despite their strong start against the run this year. Much of that has to do with matchups and Williams is still a guy who needs to be started. His teammate Jonathan Stewart has now scored two weeks in a row and isn’t a horrible start either if you’re hurt by the bye week.
- I know that you are probably frustrated by Cedric Benson‘s up and down production so far this year. I know I expected more out of him in Week 4. The Bengals play the Bucs this week, however, a team that is much better against the pass than they are the run. I think Benson can take advantage.
- The demise of Mike Tolbert was vastly overrated…by me. I thought Ryan Mathews would get more touches once he got healthy, but Tolbert dominated the first half against the Cardinals and ended up with 7 more carries than the rookie on the day. Oakland is an inviting matchup in Week 5. Both guys have strong value.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Sit ‘em RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets (vs Minnesota)
Look, I’m excited about the LT resurgence too…just not in Week 5.
LaDainian has lit up New England, Miami, and Buffalo the last three weeks…none of whom have a run defense that I’d rank in the top 15 of the NFL. In Week 5, LT and the Jets face off against a Minnesota D that is fresh off the bye and that allowed just one rushing TD through the season’s first three weeks.
Tomlinson isn’t a terrible play, but keep in mind that he isn’t a featured back and will top out in the 15-17 touch range in a game like this. While he still has a nose for the end zone, and is a decent flex option, I think the Jets will need to beat the Vikings through the air, rather than on the ground. With Tomlinson splitting carries with Shonn Greene, that limits what you can expect from him.
LaDainian Tomlinson fantasy football Week 5 projection: 60 yards rushing, 20 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 5:
- Well, after having a good fantasy day in Week 4, CJ Spiller was limited to three touches in Week 5. He’s so talented, but that doesn’t matter if he’s not touching the ball.
- Clinton Portis and Ryan Torain are splitting carries right now and they have a tough matchup in Week 5. I’d prefer to stay away from both.
- I’m not terribly high on Jahvid Best this week. He has not been as good as his 5 TDs suggest and St. Louis has been better against the run than you might think. If you have two good alternatives, I’d probably go with them. Best is more of a flex-value play this week.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘em WR: Mark Clayton, St. Louis (at Detroit)
You saw above that I like Sam Bradford this week against the Lions’ not-so-good secondary. It stands to reason then that I also like his receivers. And Mark Clayton is clearly Bradford’s go-to guy. Other than Week 2, Clayton has caught at least 5 balls and 72 yards in every game. And in Week 2, Clayton scored 2 TDs despite only catching two passes.
The Lions held Aaron Rodgers in check from a yardage standpoint in Week 4, but they still relinquished 3 TDs though the air. That brings their season total to 8, or two per game. If Sam Bradford tosses a couple of TD scores, as I expect he will, chances are good that Clayton will be on the receiving end of at least one of them.
Clayton is a very solid guy for the rest of the year. Grab him if he is somehow still on the waiver wire in your league.
Mark Clayton fantasy football Week 5 projection: 5 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em WRs for Week 5:
- It pains me to say this…and I mean it really pains me to say this…but Braylon Edwards clearly has a solid rapport with Mark Sanchez. Mr. New York Essence (and Mr. DUI) has now caught a TD pass in three consecutive games and is flashing the talent he showed for Cleveland in 2007. I might puke from typing this, but he’s pretty much a must-start right now.
- Marques Colston owners, I know you’re frustrated. Don’t give up hope. He’s still the option you want on the Saints receiving corps, and Arizona is a very inviting matchup. In fact, Lance Moore and Devery Henderson aren’t bad options this week either.
- Brandon Lloyd had another 100-yard receiving game in Week 4. Eddie Royal also had a solid outing and has now caught at least 4 balls in every game this year. The Broncos face Baltimore’s pass D, which has been outstanding this year, but I think that’s the function of who they’ve played. Denver won’t care and will chuck it around the field. Lloyd and Royal are separating themselves as the two Broncos WRs you want.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Sit ‘em WR: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (at Indianapolis)
You know I like the KC running backs this week, but I am not a big fan of the Chiefs’ receivers. Part of it is the matchup and the other part of it is how bad Matt Cassel has looked so far this year.
Dwayne Bowe has just 7 catches and one TD on the season. This comes on the heels of a sophomore season that saw him produce almost exactly half of the very strong output from his rookie campaign. I think Bowe may be a bit overrated right now because of how strong he came out of the gates as a rookie. I don’t trust him and I cannot recommend that you trust him either.
Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week 5 projection: 3 receptions, 45 yards, 0 TD
Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 5:
- T.O. went off in Week 4. Good for him. He still has three weeks in which he wasn’t worthy of being a fantasy starter. Against a pretty good pass D I’d rather have T.O. on my bench, assuming I have some decent options.
- Steve Smith had to leave the Panthers’ Week 4 game early because of an injury. He only had two receptions and 11 yards at the time. Even if he’s healthy, there are serious doubts about Jimmy Clausen’s ability to get him the ball.
- The 49ers did get the ball to Michael Crabtree more, but everything was relatively short. Right now, San Francisco just doesn’t score enough and doesn’t put their receivers in a position to make big plays. Philadelphia has a good enough secondary that I’m not ready to remove the shackles from Crabtree quite yet.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘em TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit (vs St. Louis)
Over the last three weeks, the second-year tight end has: 7 catches for 108 yards; 6 catches for 44 yards; and, 8 catches for 91 yards. He does not have a touchdown, but any of those games would provide you with adequate production from the TE spot.
Pettigrew is clearly a favorite of Shaun Hill, who continues to start for Matthew Stafford. Even if Stafford plays in Week 5, he has seen Pettigrew’s production and surely will keep him involved. If Pettigrew ever becomes a red zone target, he could be a consistent top 10 tight end. Against St. Louis, I think Pettrigrew can continue to catch 6-8 passes and provide value even if he doens’t hit paydirt.
Brandon Pettigrew fantasy football Week 5 projection: 7 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em TEs for Week 5:
- If Michael Vick is out for an extended period of time, Kevin Kolb becomes the starter and Brent Celek immediately becomes a top 10 tight end option again.
- The Packers gave up 8 catches and 91 yards to the tight end in Week 4. Chris Cooley caught a TD pass from Donovan McNabb in Week 4, his second of the year. Cooley has been consistent this year and is a solid start candidate.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Sit ‘em TE: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (vs Tennessee)
Jason Witten was once a top notch fantasy tight end, but do you realize that he has just 6 TDs in his last 39 games? Wow. That’s not very efficient production.
Now, in a PPR league, Witten is a decent choice. He will almost always get you 5-7 catches and at least provide some value. But with guys like Dustin Keller, Brandon Pettigrew, and Jermaine Greshman emerging as solid plays at tight end, Witten’s days as a must start are over.
Add in the fact that Tony Romo has TD makers in Miles Austin, Roy Williams, and Dez Bryant on the outside, plus the fact that Tennessee has been decent against the pass this year, and Witten is a prime candidate for the pine this week.
Jason Witten fantasy football Week 5 projection: 5 receptions, 50 yards, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 5:
- Todd Heap is very similar to Jason Witten. He’s older, and still a good bet for 4-5 catches per week, but the ceiling is very low.
- Kellen Winslow doesn’t have more than 4 catches in a game this year. He’s not an awful option, especially since Cincy’s D gave up a TD to the Browns’ tight end in Week 4, but I bet you can do better. Like Witten and Heap, don’t let Winslow’s reputation blind you to the reality of his current production.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Start ‘em D/ST: Chicago Bears (at Carolina)
While I do think DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have some value this week, the Panthers’ anemic passing attack means that Julius Peppers and the Bears’ D could have a very productive day.
Jimmy Clausen actually did a decent job of keeping Carolina competitive in Week 4, but he’s a rookie, and a rookie who isn’t ready to be a starting QB in the NFL. Given how well Chicago’s D has played to start the season, I like the odds of the Bears getting you 10+ points at a minimum in Week 5.
Chicago Bears D/ST fantasy football Week 5 projection: 14 or less points, 3 sacks, 2 TOs
Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 5:
- Philadelphia faces a San Francisco offense that just isn’t explosive at all. It should be a solid week for the Eagles.
- Dallas is rested, doing a good job against the run this year, and facing a Titans offense that is a mixed bag based on which Vince Young shows up.
Fantasy Football Week 5 Sit ‘em D/ST: Washington Redskins (vs Green Bay)
Washington’s offense did a nice job in Week 4 against the Eagles, but that was with Michael Vick missing the second half. Washington has been inconsistent all year and that does not bode well against a Packers offense that can put up 22 points even in a week when they’re not clicking, as happened in Week 4 against the Lions (6 of their 28 points came on an INT return).
Washington Redskins D/ST fantasy football Week 5 projection: 21 or more points, 2 sacks, 0 TOs
Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 5:
- I’m not particularly high on the Colts D this week. I think the rested Chiefs will be able to run on them.
- Baltimore’s pass D is not as good as it’s looked so far this year. Denver has the commitment to the pass to exploit this. The Ravens aren’t a terrible option, but I bet you can do better.
The comment section awaits your questions. I’ll be here all week. Let’s all get some wins in Week 5.