I enjoyed Week 10.
Not only did I hit more than I missed with my start/sit picks and comment advice in Week 10, but my team in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League also exploded for an easy and much-needed victory over the sublimely named Sweaty Ditkas.
What I loved best about my win in BFL2010 is that the two guys who carried me were unheralded players that I recommended to a lot of you in Week 10: Fred Jackson and Mike Thomas. There is nothing I love more than when I follow my own advice and it works out…because that means it’s working out for many of you too.
Just like these Week 11 start em, sit em picks will. (At least, that’s the gameplan…)
Before we delve into the Week 11 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then recap of how I did with my Week 10 top-line picks:
- Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week
And now a quick look back at my Week 10 top-line picks:
- Start em hits: David Garrard, Marshawn Lynch,
- Start em misses: Steve Johnson, Marcedes Lewis, Minnesota Vikings D
- Sit em hits: Brett Favre, LT and Shonn Greene, Brandon Marshall, Baltimore Ravens D
- Sit em misses: Jermaine Gresham
Fantasy Football Week 11 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A
Note: no teams are on bye in Week 11.
Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.
If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ‘em QB: Mark Sanchez, New York Jets (v Houston)
Look, you might consider it cheap or obvious to keep picking the QB facing Houston’s defense as my start ‘em QB. And maybe it is. But you know what else it is? Correct.
Last week I told you to start David Garrard, not a guy you automatically start each week, and he went out and threw for 342 yards and 2 TDs. He only had 7 incomplete passes. Sure, one of his TDs was that fluky game-winning Hail Mary toss, but guess what? Such a completion is not so fluky against the worst pass defense in memory.
Houston has now given up 22 TD passes in just 9 games, and they have only intercepted 5 passes. For good measure, they also relinquish 300+ passing yards per game.
Enter Mark Sanchez and the Jets passing game.
After a solid start to the year (8 TDs, 0 picks through five games) Sanchez has struggled recently (2 TDs, 5 INTs during Weeks 6-9). Then he came through with a nice effort in the Jets’ OT win over the Browns in Week 10, tossing two TD passes (plus an INT). He also passed for 299 yards and threw 44 passes; and that attempt total is what makes me like Sanchez this week.
Despite the Jets being a “running team” and Sanchez struggling recently, he has thrown 44, 39, and 38 passes in the Jets’ last few games. If he throws the ball even close to that much against Houston, the numbers suggest he’s a virtual lock for 250+ yards and 2 TDs, and that’s a conservative estimate.
Until Houston holds an opposing QB to stats that you wouldn’t have wanted for your fantasy team, keep playing the QB they are facing. With Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller, and LT out of the backfield, Sanchez has weapons. In Week 11 he also has a perfect matchup.
Mark Sanchez fantasy football Week 11 projection: 295 passing yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs
Other start ‘em QBs for Week 11:
- Peyton Manning has thrown one TD and two INTs over the past two weeks. Well guess what? He’s still averaging nearly two TD passes per game this year, rarely gets picked off, and has a nice matchup against an inconsistent pass D. Do not sit Peyton.
- The Giants got drilled by Dallas in Week 10, and Eli Manning threw two more INTs, but he also threw for 373 yards and two TDs. Eli now has 19 TD passes this season and has thrown at least two five straight games. Philly is a middle-of-the-pack pass D, so play Eli.
- The Cleveland Browns have given up 19 TD passes in 9 games this year. Though David Garrard isn’t a sexy name, he has taken advantage of good matchups this year. His run of at least two TD passes in four of his last five games is proof of this. He’s a solid start option this week, especially at home
Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit ‘em QB: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (at St. Louis)
Matt Ryan has thrown 7 TDs and just one INT over the last three weeks. Knowing that, you are probably wondering why in the world I’d tell you to sit him, and against St. Louis to boot.
Well here is why:
- Ryan has thrown 5 TDs and 2 INTs in his four road games this year. That’s not terrible, but it pales in comparison to his 11 TDs in five home games.
- The St. Louis Rams have given up only 10 TD passes in their 9 games this season. They also play much better defense at home than they do on the road.
Ryan is not necessarily a bad play. He has Roddy White to throw to, and most likely will throw a TD or two, but with the full player pool available I just don’t think Ryan is a top-12 option. He’s been nothing more than a mediocre fantasy QB on the road during his career, and against a defense that plays significantly better in its home stadium, that’s a trend worth respecting.
Matt Ryan fantasy football Week 11 projection: 235 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 11:
- You’re watching Brett Favre throw INT after INT right? Against Green Bay in Week 11, he stays on your bench.
- Josh Freeman had yet another good game in Week 10, but I don’t think he’s a top-12 option in Week 11. Playing at San Francisco’s improving D, Freeman could struggle to put up more than one TD.
- Jay Cutler had a solid day in Week 10, throwing 3 TDs (but also two INTs). The Dolphins will give up some big passing plays and TDs, but they also keep the yardage low and can rush the passer. I’m not a big fan of Cutler on Thursday night.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ‘em RB: Felix Jones, Dallas (v Detroit)
Few players have fluctuated in my mind more this season than Felix Jones. I thought he was a great mid-round sleeper pick in the preseason (though I wasn’t buying the 2nd/3rd round hype), then I stayed relatively confident in him through the season’s first 6 weeks, and then I finally soured enough on Felix that I dropped him in every league I had him.
And now I wish I had him back, at least for this week.
The firing of Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett’s insistence on discipline and accountability seemed to light a fire under the Cowboys in Week 10. This was definitely evident with Jones. With 17 touches (3 receptions), Felix accumulated 136 yards and a TD. That is an excellent day at the office, and what we all expected from Felix before the season started.
In Week 11, Jones and the Cowboys play the Detroit Lions…the same Detroit Lions that have lost 1,000 straight games on the road (only a slight exaggeration); the same Detroit Lions that give up 130.4 yards rushing per game and at least 1 TD; and, yes, the same Detroit Lions that allowed Fred Jackson to do his Adrian Peterson impression last week (170 total yards, 2 TDs).
Understand this: I’m not jumping on the Felix Jones bandwagon for the rest of the season. Dallas’ O-Line still sucks and Jones still remains an inconsistent talent, but I saw life in those legs again last week, and the matchup is very favorable. This is the week to play Felix.
Felix Jones fantasy football Week 11 projection: 60 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 55 yards receiving, 1 TD
Other start ‘em RBs for Week 11:
- Any healthy San Diego running backs are good starts this week by virtue of their matchup against the Broncos. Ryan Mathews has been dinged up, so check his injury status, but I like Mike Tolbert this week and I even like Darren Sproles in deeper leagues.
- I know that Darren McFadden is facing Pittsburgh this week, which is usually an auto-sit, but Cedric Benson scored a TD against the Steelers in Week 9 and the Pats rushed for 100+ yards against them in Week 10. It seems like injuries may be catching up to Pittsburgh, and McFadden has been among the very best running backs this year. Keep him in there. He’s earned that kind of trust.
- Don’t question playing Jamaal Charles anymore. He’s a top 10 back, especially now that he’s getting the bulk of the carries. Against Arizona? Oh yeah. The Cardinals made Justin Forsett and Marshawn Lynch fantasy-relevant last week. Even Thomas Jones has some value this week.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit ‘em RB: Jahvid Best, Detroit (at Dallas)
This one really isn’t hard.
Realize the following about Jahvid Best, who came storming out of the gates with 5 TDs during the season’s first two weeks:
- He hasn’t scored since.
- He has not surpassed 59 yards rushing since.
- He’s averaging less than 4.0 yards per rush.
There just isn’t much to like about Best right now. If he couldn’t produce last week, against the leagues’ worst run D (Buffalo), then when will he produce?
The Cowboys held both Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to less than 4.0 yards per carry in Week 10 and kept both out of the end zone. On the season, the Cowboys have allowed only 6 rushing TDs. With Jahvid Best still perhaps not totally recovered from his toe injury, and his Lions having to play at Dallas, now is the time to sit him (unless you’re in a deep PPR league).
Jahvid Best fantasy football Week 11 projection: 45 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 30 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 11:
- Okay, I’m not going to tell you to sit Michael Turner, per se, but I do think you should consider it if you have a deep stable of backs. Turner only has 1 TD on the road this year and faces a Rams D that has given up just 3 rushing TDs all year and that plays much better at home.
- I know that everyone is excited about Reggie Bush‘s return to the Saints lineup, but I still would not consider playing him unless you’re in a PPR league.
- Don’t get too pumped up about Cadillac Williams scoring a TD last week. He only had 7 touches and faces a tough SF run D in Week 11.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ‘em WR: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City (v Arizona)
It is my hope that every consistent reader of MSF Fantasy Sports would feel comfortable saying the following about me: “Jerod is not afraid nor ashamed to admit when he is wrong.” I think if you are going to put yourself out there as a fantasy football analyst, it is a prerequisite that you be able to admit mistakes, because they happen often.
One of my biggest errors this season is being late to the Dwayne Bowe party. Sure, I feel like I had good reasons to withhold my trust, but I know that I’ve told people sit him during weeks when Bowe has exploded. Well no more. Dwayne Bowe has 9 TDs in 9 games and has now made a believer out of me.
Specific to Week 11, Bowe and the Chiefs face an Arizona defense that gives up nearly 270 passing yards per game and 1.5+ TDs per game. For perspective, Big Mike Williams from Seattle has looked like an All Pro against the Cardinals in two games this year. Dwayne Bowe is much better than Mike Williams, and I expect Bowe to follow his anomalous, garbage time induced 13-catch, 186-yard performance with another solid, though less spectacular, outing in Week 11.
Dwayne Bowe fantasy football Week 11 projection: 6 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em WRs for Week 11:
- Dez Bryant is a top 20 WR from here on out and a weekly must start, okay? Okay. Wow, what a talent. Now his QB and play-caller are clearly committed to getting the ball in his hands. Smart.
- Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are facing Houston. That really should be all I need to say.
- Everyone needs to stop sleeping on Danny Amendola. He’s scored in three straight weeks and has an ultra-accurate QB throwing to him. This is a top-30 WR, easy.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit ‘em WR: Big Mike Williams, Seattle (at New Orleans)
I already know that tons of you are going to ask me about Big Mike Williams (that’s now the new way to differentiate between he and the Better Mike Williams in Tampa Bay) and with good reason. Big Mike had an 11-catch, 145 yard outburst in Week 10. This was his third game in 2010 with 10 or more catches.
The problem? Two of those 10-catch games came against Arizona, which has one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. In no other game but one has Big Mike caught more than four passes. That is the definition of feast or famine.
In Week 11, Big Mike faces a New Orleans defense that has been very good against the pass. The Saints lead the league in both passing yards against (166. 3 yards) and TDs against (6). While Big Mike did a nice job against the Bears’ very good pass D in Week 6 (10 catches, 123 yards), his six worthless weeks speak louder to me than his three good ones…especially against the Saints.
Big Mike Williams fantasy football Week 11 projection: 3 catches, 31 yards, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 11:
- I did not like Brandon Marshall in Week 10 against Tennessee and I definitely don’t like him against the Bears in Week 11. Until the Dolphins prove they can get Marshall in the end zone, I’m not going to trust him. He’s not a terrible play, but he’s not a slam-dunk #2 WR anymore.
- I know that Sidney Rice will be back in Week 11, and everyone is excited about his return, but the Packers have given up only 9 TDs all year, and Rice has yet to play a down. I’d prefer to avoid this matchup and give him a week to test the hip and re-acclimate to game speed.
- Wes Welker “exploded” for 8 receptions and 89 yards in Week 10. I say “exploded” because Mr. PPR hadn’t caught more than 4 passes since Week 6. Welker still hasn’t scored since Week 2 though, and faces an Indy team that he has not had great success against in the past (24 receptions, 190 yards, 1 TD in four career games).
Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ‘em TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit (at Dallas)
I do not like a lot of Detroit guys this week, especially because they are on the road. However, because the Cowboys have not covered tight ends well at all this year, I think Pettigrew is an outstanding choice. Consider that Kevin Boss went 5-81 with a TD against the Cowboys in Week 10 and two games prior Marcedes Lewis caught two TDs.
With Shaun Hill at QB for Detroit, who clearly targets Pettigrew more than Matthew Stafford, I expect a big game from the second-year emerging star.
Brandon Pettigrew fantasy football Week 11 projection: 6 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD
Other start ‘em TEs for Week 11:
- In Week 10, Troy Smith remembered that he has one of the best receiving weapons in football at his disposal in Vernon Davis. VD had a spectacular TD wiped off the board because of a penalty; otherwise his 4-catch, 79-yard day would have been outstanding. Expect more goodness against Tampa Bay.
- Jacob Tamme has not caught fewer than 6 passes or 64 yards in any of the three games he’s started. He also has two TDs. He’s a must start. Trust it.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit ‘em TE: Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (at San Francisco)
I know that K2 caught his first TD of the season in Week 10, but he had only four receptions in the previous two games combined. While San Francisco has been susceptible to the pass this year (13 TDs), most of the damage has been done by WRs.
The 49ers have athletic linebackers who can cover tight ends, and with a full player pool to choose from Winslow just hasn’t proven himself enough to be a solid start option.
Kellen Winslow fantasy football Week 11 projection: 4 receptions, 40 yards, 0 TDs
Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 11:
- Lots of people are going nuts about Rob Gronkowski after his 3-TD outburst in Week 10. If we know anything about New England, it’s that different guys step up each week. I actually like Aaron Hernandez more in Week 10, a guy whose athleticism may help him duplicate what Jermaine Gresham did to the Colts in Week 10.
- Anthony Fasano had a real nice Week 10 with 100+ yards and a TD. Facing Chicago in Week 11, I don’t expect any kind of reprise of those numbers.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Start ‘em Defense: Baltimore Ravens (at Carolina)
The Baltimore Ravens do not have an elite defense anymore, not from a fantasy standpoint nor a real-life standpoint. The Ravens do, however, still have play-makers like Ed Reed and Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata that can take advantage of good matchups.
With Tony Pike likely to start for Carolina if fellow rookie Jimmy Clausen is not recovered from his concussion, you know that the hungry, rested Ravens will be ready to tee off. This is a no-brainer.
Baltimore Ravens fantasy football Week 11 projection: 13 or fewer points, 4 sacks, 3 TOs, 1 TD
Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 11:
- Kansas City‘s defense was embarrassed by the Broncos in Week 10. Considering Todd Haley’s fire and Romeo Crennel’s success as a defensive coordinator, I think this young and talented unit rebounds against Derek Anderson and the Fightin’ Larry Fitzgeralds in Week 11.
- The Seahawks are playing on the road, have an injured QB with a sucky backup, and will face the best pass defense in football. Yes, those New Orleans Saints are a must-start defense right now.
Fantasy Football Week 11 Sit ‘em Defense: Washington Redskins (at Tennessee)
I am writing this while watching the Monday Night Football game between the Eagles and Redskins. As we speak, the scoreboard reads 35-0 and there are still 14:00+ minutes left in the 2nd quarter. Umm…
I know that Washington has play-makers like DeAngelo Hall who will get picks and score touchdowns, but those same play-makers also give up lots of big plays and TDs. I don’t trust Washington anymore and would be fine with you dropping them at this point, even against a team with QB turmoil like Tennessee.
Washington Redskins fantasy football Week 11 projection: 24 or more points, 1 sack, 1 TO
Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 11:
- The Cleveland Browns defense has been better as of late, but don’t get cute. This isn’t a defense that gets lots of sacks or turnovers, and the Jaguars offense is, dare I say it, damn close to a juggernaut right now.
- Stay away from the Indy and New England defenses this week. It’s Peyton Manning v Tom Brady. Expect points, and lots of ‘em.
Okay, there you have it. The Week 11 start em, sit em pick and projections are in the books. Now the comment section awaits your questions.
**********
* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.